Friday, October 21, 2011

The world ought to know "que estamos jodidos"


They just refer to it now as "the catastrophe".

Each day the numbers rise, in waves, like the flood waters here in El Salvador.

-- one million Salvadorans affected
-- 34 dead
-- 48,723 evacuated
-- 54,000 people have already spent 4 or more days in 566 shelters.
-- 14,140 houses inundated
-- 1,183 wells contaminated
-- 22 highways damaged
-- 4 strategic bridges collapsed
-- 10 bridges damaged
-- 15 bridges in imminent danger
-- 45% of the corn crop lost
-- 70% of the bean crop lost
-- 1% of the coffee harvest lost, valued at $2.5 million 

The longer term impact is even more overwhelming, especially for a poor country like El Salvador.  The economic and social consequences are staggering.

-- Small, roadside/curbside businesses have lost the ability to sell, or to start again.
-- Imported foods will sell at a higher price.
-- Transportation costs are rising due to increased traveling distances.
-- Major schools have been shut down for two weeks.  Many schools are severely damaged.
-- Numerous croplands destroyed or underwater.
-- Chicken and fish farms have been destroyed.
-- Those who took out loans for their now lost businesses will be bankrupt.
-- health concerns grow each day.

President Funes has called this the worst disaster in the country's history.

El Salvador has come back from many previous disasters, including the worst of Hurricane Mitch in October 1998, and then in 2001 when two major earthquakes rocked the country just one month apart from each.  

But, there are several significant factors that make this time different.  Today, the world is in the midst of an economic crisis.  And El Salvador is dollarized.  Their currency is the American dollar.  They rise and fall with the value of our currency.  They have no control nor the ability to establish their own fiscal monetary policy.  We made sure of that in 1994 when Washington had concerns that the leftist leaning FMLN might win the presidency.  

The Salvadorans have a saying that "when Washington sneezes, we get pneumonia."  

El Salvador was still recovering from the damage of tropical storms Ida in 2009 and Agatha in 2010.  Now, they must come back from their worst disaster.  Their national deficit will rise while their production capability just dropped through the floor.  And, the ability of the international community to help is undermined by the global economic crisis.

Recovery and reconstruction will take months, probably years.  All of this in an already very, very at-risk society.  The extent of poverty, gang violence, and organized crime activity is at an all-time high in El Salvador and surrounding countries.

The major of the town of San Julian summed up their situation.  "The world ought to know" he said, "que estamos jodidos." 

From San Salvador, October 2011,  Carlito

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